T&
Travel & Leisure Co. (TNL)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered top-line and EPS beats vs Street: revenue $1.044B vs $1.033B consensus, and adjusted diluted EPS $1.80 vs $1.73 consensus; Adjusted EBITDA grew 10% YoY to $266M and exceeded the high end of guidance . EPS/Revenue estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
- Guidance raised: FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA mid-point increased to $975M (range $965–$985M), with higher Gross VOI sales and VPG ranges; management reiterated strong booking pace and stable consumer finance performance .
- KPIs strengthened: VPG reached $3,304 (+10% YoY), tours were 200K (+2% YoY), and Vacation Ownership revenue rose 6% YoY to $876M; Travel & Membership transactions rose 12% but mix drove margin pressure .
- Capital allocation remained robust: $106M returned in Q3 ($70M repurchases, $36M dividends); net leverage at 3.3x, liquidity ~$1.1B; subsequent ABS priced at 4.78% (most efficient in 2025), a tailwind to cost of funds .
- Catalysts: the beat and raised FY guidance, multi-brand expansion (Sports Illustrated Resorts, Eddie Bauer Adventure Club), and improving ABS funding levels support estimate revisions and sentiment into Q4 and 2026 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- Strong VOI execution: Gross VOI sales $682M (+13% YoY); VPG $3,304 (+10% YoY); Vacation Ownership revenue $876M (+6% YoY); CEO: “exceeding the high end of our Adjusted EBITDA guidance and achieving our 18th consecutive quarter with a VPG above $3,000” .
- Guidance raise and cash generation: FY Adjusted EBITDA range lifted to $965–$985M; adjusted free cash flow up 23% YTD; CFO targeting ~50% EBITDA-to-cash conversion in 2025 .
- Strategic brand expansion: Eddie Bauer Adventure Club launched; Sports Illustrated Resorts Chicago conversion and Nashville timeline; “sales will begin in Nashville at the end of this year” .
- What Went Wrong
- Travel & Membership margin pressure: EBITDA down 6% YoY to $58M on lower revenue per transaction despite transactions growth; mix shift to lower-margin travel club .
- Elevated loan loss provision: maintained at 21% for 2025, tempering flow-through; management expects longer-term normalization toward upper-teens, but for 2025 Q4 to be the low watermark .
- Exchange business structural headwinds: average exchange members down 2% YoY; exchange transactions down 3% YoY; management emphasized structural decline and offset efforts via travel clubs .
Financial Results
Consolidated Trend (quarterly)
Year‑over‑Year (Q3)
Segment Breakdown (Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA)
KPIs
Street vs Actuals (Q3 2025)
Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Travel + Leisure Co. delivered another exceptional quarter, exceeding the high end of our Adjusted EBITDA guidance and achieving our 18th consecutive quarter with a VPG above $3,000.”
- CEO on strategy: “We are investing in digital and AI tools… owner engagement scores have increased over 120 basis points versus the prior year.”
- CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA was $266 million, up 10% year over year, and above the high end of our guidance range… We exceeded our $255 million guidance midpoint by $11 million.”
- CFO on funding: “ABS transaction priced at 4.78%… weighted average cost of funds… down ~15 bps YoY; setting up a multi-year tailwind.”
- CEO on brands: “Sales will begin in Nashville at the end of this year… Chicago rebrand toward the end of 2026.”
Q&A Highlights
- New owners and mix: New owners were 31% of sales; owner-side performance and VPG near all-time highs; tour flow expected to accelerate in Q4 .
- Sports Illustrated Resorts pipeline: Focus on conversions in urban and college-town markets; Nashville sales to begin YE 2025; Chicago conversion open during transition; broader membership access contemplated as assets register .
- ABS tailwind: Latest ABS at 4.78% with 98% advance rate; cost of funds turning down, a multi-year tailwind .
- Provision and credit: FY provision to finish at 21%; management sees longer-term settling in upper-teens; Q4 expected to be the low watermark .
- Maintenance fees: Aim to keep around CPI; focus on delivering value and avoiding outsized increases .
- Portfolio pruning: Closing a small number of legacy resorts to improve portfolio quality, reduce potential special assessments, and refresh inventory; financial impact balanced by fewer sales locations vs lower carry costs .
Estimates Context
- Q3 beats: Revenue $1.044B vs $1.033B consensus*; adjusted diluted EPS $1.80 vs $1.73 consensus* . Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
- EBITDA: S&P “EBITDA Consensus Mean” was ~$255M* vs S&P actual ~$246M*, while company’s Adjusted EBITDA was $266M (non-GAAP); differences reflect definitional variance between Street EBITDA and company’s Adjusted EBITDA .
- Forward view: Q4 2025 consensus EPS ~$1.82* and revenue ~$1.000B*; Q1 2026 consensus EPS ~$1.30* and revenue ~$0.969B*—with FY guidance raised, Street may revisit EBITDA/VOI/VPG trajectories. Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- VOI engine is compounding: modest revenue growth translating into outsized adjusted EBITDA and EPS growth, supported by high VPG and efficient inventory recovery programs .
- FY guidance raised and Q3 beat set a constructive backdrop for estimate revisions and multiple support into Q4; watch implied Q4 cadence (strong comp, variable comp true-ups, and brand investments) .
- Funding costs are improving: successive ABS deals at lower coupons and high advance rates should gradually reduce consumer finance cost of funds and support margins through 2026 .
- Credit metrics stable: weighted average FICO >740; FY provision held at 21% with expectations for upper-teens longer-term; monitor Q4 provision inflection .
- Travel & Membership growth with mix headwind: transactions up (+12%) but revenue per transaction down; near-term margin pressure likely until mix rebalances—still an important free-cash contributor .
- Brand expansion is a 2026+ growth lever: Eddie Bauer Adventure Club and Sports Illustrated Resorts should accelerate new owner acquisition and broaden addressable market; near-term investment required .
- Capital returns remain a core pillar: Q3 buybacks ($70M) and dividend ($0.56) alongside leverage ~3.3x and ~$1.1B liquidity provide downside support and optionality .
Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.